Value bets are those bets that are
"worthy" to be played. A bet is always a value bet when the odds
too high in relation to the probability.
Example for value bets : In your opinion, to win the championship
match of FC Bayern against Hamburg with a probability of 50%.
Suppose, the bookie X provides for a win of Bayern at a rate of
2.10. With a 50% probability of a balanced ratio would have to be
quoted with 2.00. Since the rate is obviously higher than the
expected probability to value of 2.10, it is therefore a value bet.
To predict the probability of a certain event, of course, exact
studies and a degree of dexterity is required. These should be
determined by both Statistics (various tables, Head to Head, etc.),
as well as current influences (e.g. blocking players, shape, etc.).
Likewise, it is possible to calculate these probabilities using the Unibet
oddset offered on the market. Here it is assumed that the average
rate of the different bookmakers shows a true picture of the
likelihood ratios. These average rates are in turn converted to
percentages, so I get an average probability of the possible
betting outputs. Now a bookmakers is well above this average, I see
where the value and place my bet.
However, to calculate probabilities for sports betting, which also
reflect the actual situation on the field requires much knowledge
and experience. Value bets do not lead to secure profits, but these
are certainly a betting strategy that is worth to be studied. Since
value bets is the most basic of all sports betting strategies is a
basic knowledge of advisable in all cases.
